segunda-feira, 6 de julho de 2026

Samsung pushing DRAM/NAND contract price hikes of ~20-40% for 3Q26

Per ZDNet/Commercial Times, Samsung is negotiating a ~20% QoQ 3Q DRAM ASP increase (LPDDR possibly >20%) and NAND flash up 35-40% QoQ; Samsung DRAM ASP reportedly rose >90% QoQ in 1Q and ~50-60% in 2Q. TrendForce sees conventional DRAM contract prices +13-18% QoQ and NAND +10-15% in 3Q26, with consumer PC/smartphone customers nearing affordability limits.

Samsung 2Q preliminary earnings due; consensus OP ~W84tn, >W100tn would surprise

Market OP consensus sits at W84.3tn (~$55bn), +47% QoQ / +1,177% YoY, while Jefferies (w/KB) estimates W90tn at 50% OPM including >W10tn bonus provisions. Meritz Sec expects W90.1tn. OP of W85-90tn is seen as in-line; anything >W100tn (~$65bn) could surprise the market amid daily +/-5% swings driven by leveraged ETFs.

Kioxia begins sampling 1Tb TLC 10th-gen BiCS FLASH; may boost capex

Kioxia commenced sample shipments of 1Tb TLC memory on its 10th-gen BiCS FLASH (332 layers, +59% bit density, 4.8 Gb/s interface, +33% vs 8th gen), targeting enterprise/data center SSDs for AI storage, manufactured at Kitakami Fab2. The CEO said Kioxia may boost capex if the market grows faster than expected and sees no signs of data center demand weakening.

Apple raising iPhone build plans; ~10mn foldables and up to 85mn new iPhones for 2H26

Nikkei reports Apple has told suppliers to prepare ~10mn foldable iPhones this year (up from 7-8mn) and gave a forecast of up to 85mn new iPhones for 2H26, with 2026 total iPhone production well above 220mn units. Foldable hinge engineering issues have progressed, but large-volume production likely only comes around year-end; Ming-chi Kuo separately estimates just 7-8M foldable units in 2H26.

ASML Q2-26 preview: in-line rev/GM, focus on 2027 low-NA EUV shipments

Jefferies (Janardan) models Q2 revenue of €8.79bn at 52% GM, in line with consensus/guidance, with Q3 guidance ~€10bn (JEFe €10.3bn) and FY guide possibly raised from €36-40bn to €38-42bn. Key focus is 2027 low-NA EUV: company likely preparing for ~90 systems, with >90 possible on fast orders; China sales expected -20-30%, ~20% of sales.

May WSTS data: industry revenue on pace to exceed $1.5T in 2026

Harlan Sur flags May WSTS sales accelerating to +119% YoY ($131.9b), or +34% ex-memory, and +16% MoM, driven by surging memory pricing (DRAM +14% MoM, flash +26%) and AI demand. Even on conservative seasonal assumptions, C26 sales would exceed $1.5-1.6t (~23% 5-yr CAGR). Watch item is analog (-3.5% MoM) and MCU (-4.5%) softness; JPM maintains OW ratings.

Korea unveils ~$880B mega projects; memory vendors to invest ~$520B

The Korean government announced three mega projects (~$880B) centered on semiconductors, AI DC and physical AI, with memory vendors planning ~$520B including four new fabs in Southwestern Korea and accelerated Pyeongtaek/Yongin plans. SK Hynix will invest KRW 80trn in M17 (NAND, production ~2029) plus KRW 20trn in P&T7 packaging; Samsung KRW 56trn in an HBM fab/packaging. Government targets doubling DRAM capacity within 5 years — a positive for WFE names (AMAT, ASML).

Apple lobbying for CXMT access; Samsung restarts 1.4nm and engages WFE partners

The FT reported AAPL is lobbying the Trump administration for access to Chinese memory maker CXMT as DRAM prices climb (Jefferies expects approval unlikely), a signal of how tight memory has become. Separately, TrendForce reports Samsung resumed its 1.4nm (SF1.4) process with C29 production targets, requesting early development from partners including AMAT and LRCX — reinforcing a structural SemiCap upcycle.

Kingboard Laminates issues fresh CCL price increase notice

Kingboard reportedly issued another price increase (effective today) citing rising copper foil and fiberglass costs: FR-4 (1.3mm+) +15%, PP +15%, CEM-1/22F +10%, plus copper foil processing fee hikes. This follows a +15% FR-4/PP increase in mid-June, reflecting tight CCL supply amid AI server and 1.6T switch demand.

Nan Ya Plastics electronic-materials shift; May EPS NT$0.33 (+610% YoY)

Fubon (Vicky) notes electronic materials reached 52.8% of Nan Ya's 1Q26 sales (+6.4ppt vs FY25), heading to ~60%, with mid/high-end CCL demand exceeding supply and CCL prices raised 15% in March. CCL M8/M9 mass production expected in 2H26; T-glass with Nittobo passed certification, capacity to triple by FY28. May preliminary net EPS was NT$0.33, +610.4% YoY.

Substrate makers face price-cut pressure; SEMCO/Sumitomo glass-core JV

Per ET News, Samsung and SK Hynix are pressing Korean substrate suppliers to lower prices for 2H26, potentially wiping out the 3-4% increases agreed in 1Q26. Separately, Sumitomo Chemical's Dongwoo Fine-Chem signed a JV with Samsung Electro-Mechanics for glass core substrates for advanced packages, targeting a supply system by 2H FY2027.

Hon Hai June sales NT$821.8bn (-4.4% MoM, +52.1% YoY); ADI warns of supply tightness

Hon Hai reported June sales of NT$821.8bn (-4.38% MoM, +52.11% YoY), with AI cloud/networking pull-in sustained but constrained by tight material supply; 3Q AI rack shipments expected to keep growing. Separately, local press reports Analog Devices warned customers of ongoing supply tightness from broad demand, with lead times extending up to six months.

Nanya Tech upgraded to OW; Accton 2Q revenue NT$96b (+58% YoY)

JPM's Jay Kwon upgraded Nanya Technology to Overweight on a higher-for-longer DRAM thesis, raising the PT to NT$710. Albert Hung flagged strong Accton monthly revenues taking 2Q26 to NT$96b (+58% YoY), attributed mainly to the AWS Trainium 3 roll-out and robust networking demand.

European semis: prefer analog (IFX, STM) as cycle hits record growth

Jefferies notes global semi revenue YoY growth hit ~94% by April 2026 (highest in history, above 57% in Feb 2010 and 52% at the dot-com peak), driven by memory pricing (DDR5 spot +700% since Sept 2025). With European semis +69% in Q2-26 at/above peak multiples, Jefferies sees limited further re-rating and prefers analog names (IFX, STM) with the greatest FY26/FY27 earnings upgrade potential amid an emerging analog/auto restocking upcycle.

Asahi Kasei to build Taiwan substrate-material plant; LG Chem enters strippers

Asahi Kasei will set up a Taiwan plant (¥2bn / ~$12.4m) to process Sunfort film photoresist material for semiconductor package substrates, boosting capacity there by 40% with room to double. Separately, LG Chem began supplying semiconductor strippers to Amkor — its first commercial move into the market — with a product that cuts photoresist/residue removal time by about half.

Korean makers push hybrid bonding in HBM beyond HBM4

Per ZDNet, Korean memory makers are delaying hybrid bonding adoption to HBM4E (7th-gen, 16-stack) at the earliest, as JEDEC relaxes thickness standards and both Samsung (Heat Path Block) and SK Hynix (iHBM) develop alternative thermal solutions. Weak pull for high-stack HBM (12-stack HBM4E likely the volume product) and softer NVIDIA demand add to the delay.

📄 Publicações e eventos

Jefferies University tech calls: Optical Communications for AI (Jul 14) & China Rare Earth control (Jul 15)

Two Mandarin webinars hosted by Edison Lee: 'Status and Outlook of Optical Communications for AI' (Jul 14, expert Rick Li) covering 800G→1.6T→3.2T upgrades, NPO/CPO, OCS; and 'China's Rare Earth Export Control' (Jul 15, expert Darren Wang) on Indium/Dysprosium Oxide dominance for optics/MLCC. Related stocks incl. Innolight (300308 CH), Eoptolink (300502 CH), Dongshan Precision (002384 CH), AXTI, JX Metals (5016 JP).

SK hynix Inc. (NASDAQ: SKHY) ~$28bn ADS IPO — roadshow & pricing July 9

SK Hynix US-registered ADS public offering of ~$28bn (177,900,000 ADSs), bookrunners J.P. Morgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman Sachs. Last price July 3: W2,425,000 / $158.14. Pricing date Thursday July 9 (AMC); a group investor webinar was held Monday July 6 at 1:30pm ET, with hybrid 1-on-1 meetings July 6-8. Entry code SKHY8191.

JPM Chips for Breakfast — calls, events & research roundup

JPM's weekly note flags: Gokul Hariharan's TSMC pre-earnings call (Jul 7, 8am ET); Silergy IR meetings (Jul 7-8 NY, Jul 15 Boston); HW & Semis Management Access Forum (Aug 12, Palo Alto — AAOI, CDNS, LITE, LRCX plus optical panels); Custom ASIC Deep-dive (Aug 26); and the 11th Annual Asia Tech Tour (Aug 17-28, Taiwan/Korea/Japan). Research includes WSTS, Rohm PT raise, LG Innotek (PT W1.1mn), Nanya Tech upgrade, Nittobo (PT ¥5,800), and Wise initiation.

Ushio (6925 JP) — Jefferies raises price target to ¥5,500 on AIDC exposure

Nakanomyo-san lifted FY3/27 OP to ¥14.8bn and FY3/28 to ¥21.0bn on a better outlook for optical source/equipment. Three focus areas: litho steppers (AIDC demand growing 3-4x over 3-4 yrs), direct-imaging (50%+ of sales AIDC-related), and DLT interposers/EMIB-T. Shares +79% YTD; TP ¥5,500 based on 26x FY3/29 PER.

Anthropic in talks with Samsung to manufacture a custom AI chip

The Information reports Anthropic is in talks with Samsung Electronics to be a manufacturing partner for a custom AI chip. The news helped drive a sharp rally in Korean memory names, with Samsung +8.2% and SK Hynix +10.9% intraday.

META building a cloud business to monetize excess AI compute; overbuild fears spark selloff

Bloomberg reported META is building a cloud business to sell excess compute (mirroring SpaceX-style deals with GOOG, Anthropic, Reflection AI), reigniting AI overbuild fears that sent AI hardware down ~10% on the week (HDD -20%, T&M -17%, Optical -14%). Jefferies' Brent Thill and JPM's Joe Cardoso push back, noting utilization at ~65% leaves ~35% to monetize, that capacity remains constrained, and that management checks still signal strong demand and backlog into 2027+. SemiAnalysis argues META has contracted 5GW+ in H1 2026 with compute deals priced at ~$50B/GW/yr.

Treasury internal report warns of AI-bubble risks

A draft Treasury report obtained by NOTUS likens the AI market to the dot-com bubble, with career analysts finding AI firms more deeply entrenched in the economy than dot-com-era companies and warning a downturn would hit markets, data center financiers, cloud providers, chipmakers and utilities. It contrasts with Treasury Secretary Bessent's bullish stance; a spokesperson dismissed the findings as unvetted.

NVIDIA Kyber (Rubin Ultra) rack delayed to 2028

Per CNBC/SemiAnalysis, NVIDIA's Kyber rack-scale architecture (144 Rubin Ultra chips) has slipped over 12 months to 2028 due to PCB midplane manufacturability issues, with a fallback dual-rack solution scrapped after cloud provider pushback. Near-term fundamentals remain strong (current Rubin ships this fall, DC revenue projected ~20% above consensus in H2 FY2027), but the gap opens a competitive window for AMD and Google at the high-performance training tier.

AVGO bull case points to C28 EPS of $30-40

Jefferies' scenario analysis on Broadcom points to $30-40 of C28 EPS at $200-250B of ASIC revenue (midpoint $225B at 20GWs, $11B/GW). TPU v9 (Pumafish) is on schedule for a late-C26 launch; the 20GW XPV (Apollo/Blackstone) reflects Anthropic and OpenAI demand, and the OAI/AVGO Jalapeno XPU shows ~50% lower cost / ~40% lower power vs Blackwell. AVGO trades at ~10x C28 EPS at the midpoint.

ByteDance and Alibaba to disable humanlike AI custom agents ahead of new China rules

ByteDance's Doubao (by Jul 15) and Alibaba's Qwen (by Jul 10) are disabling customizable AI-agent/companion features ahead of China's 'Anthropomorphic Interaction Services' rules effective July 15, which target AI simulating personality and sustained emotional interaction. Functional tools (customer service, education, workplace assistants) are exempt — a targeted crackdown on companion/persona-style AI, not chatbots broadly.

CyberAgent (4751 JP) — Jefferies raises FY9/26 forecasts

Hiroko raised FY9/26 estimates to sales ¥941.8bn (+7.8% YoY) and OP ¥83.6bn (+16.5% YoY, from ¥77.1bn), well above company guidance of ¥50-60bn OP; by end-H1 CyberAgent already generated ¥52.5bn OP. 3Q OP seen at ¥17.8bn vs cons ¥17.3bn. PT maintained at ¥1,850 (19.3x FY9/27 EPS ¥95.8).

Kuaishou restructures Kling AI video unit at ~$15bn pre-money valuation

Kuaishou announced a Kling restructuring: initial investors inject ~RMB13.8bn (~$2.03bn); pre-money valuation ~$15bn; Kling could receive up to ~RMB20.4bn (~$3bn) if the subscription limit is fully utilized (~16.67% of enlarged capital), diluting Kuaishou's ownership from 100% to ~68.33%. 2025 Kling revenue ~RMB1.1bn with RMB1.9bn losses; Mar-26 annualized run rate ~$500m.

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson stays long Biotech as a 'broadening' play

In his weekly note, Mike Wilson reiterates a positive Biotech view given its rate sensitivity (historically ~20% annualized returns in elevated/falling-rate regimes) and MS's below-3% core CPI call, plus a ramping M&A cycle. Biotech has become a major positive momentum exposure. MS OW names include IONS, KYMR, BBIO, INSM, ONC, ARGX, ASND, CRNX, LEGN, RYTM, ARWR, DNLI, RARE, PTCT.

LLY Eloralintide+Tirzepatide combo data look competitive; awaiting Reta CV

EASD abstracts show an LLY Ph1b Tirzepatide+Eloralintide obesity trial with the highest-dose arm (Elora 9mg + Tirz 15mg) delivering max mean weight reductions of 29.0% (Wk 32) and 25.5% (Wk 24) — competitive but early, with some tolerability issues; MS doesn't expect it to move the stock. MS sees LLY 2Q numbers well positioned on Zepbound/Mounjaro (Foundayo may be soft) and awaits Retatrutide Ph3 TRIUMPH-3 CV risk data.

EXEL — Zanzalintinib Phase 3 STELLAR-304 in nccRCC preview (2H26)

MS's Sean Laaman previews the Ph3 STELLAR-304 readout for zanzalintinib in non-clear cell RCC, expected 2H26, laying out 6 scenarios. Base case: ORR ~45-53% (broadly comparable to IO+TKI benchmarks of ~54-59%), clear PFS benefit vs sunitinib, active-arm mPFS ~1 year+ and improved tolerability. Sean is EW with a $50 PT; investors have been broadly negative on tox/differentiation vs Cabo.

PHVS — FDA accepts deucrictibant HAE NDA (PDUFA Apr 23, 2027); Ph3 CHAPTER-3 due this quarter

FDA accepted the deucrictibant IR capsule NDA for on-demand HAE, PDUFA April 23, 2027 (in line with guidance). Prophylactic Ph3 CHAPTER-3 data is due this quarter; MS's Max Skor sees ~75% POS (raised from 65%) and a binary setup: +35% on a superior injectable-like profile (85%+ rate reduction), +10-20% on parity, and -40%+ on a miss. PT raised to $46 (from $41).

INSM — Brinsupri weekly scripts tracking above consensus

Symphony Rx shows 1,495 scripts for the week of 6/26/26 (from 1,469 the prior week), up +2%. MS's analysis implies ~$291.1M for 2Q26 sales, above consensus of $278M and MSe of $272M. Management is confirmed to attend the MS HC conference (Sep 14-16).

M&A/catalyst movers: NVS buys Myricx Bio; SEER receives unsolicited bid

Pre-market movers included NVS acquiring Myricx Bio for $1.1B upfront plus up to $400M in milestones; SEER (+35.2%) received an unsolicited acquisition proposal from Omid Farokhzad at $2.45/share; SCLX signed a term sheet for a $100M strategic investment from iHolding Group. Ratings moves: GILD upgraded to OW at HSBC, PFE downgraded to EW at HSBC, TECH downgraded to EW at Evercore.

Germany eases pharma burden in health-insurance reform bill

Per Bloomberg, Germany's ruling coalition tweaked its cost-cutting reform bill for the public health-insurance system, agreeing to a fixed 15.5% rebate on medicines from next year (up from the current 7%) rather than harsher measures. The broader package aims to rein in a financing deficit expected to exceed €40 billion by the end of the decade.

Asia HC updates: Towa acquires Tanabe Pharma Factory; China 1H26 drug approvals; Korea risk-reward resets

MS Research highlights: Towa Pharmaceutical (4553 JP) will acquire all shares of Tanabe Pharma Factory to strengthen supply capacity (positive); China's NMPA approved 58 novel drugs in 1H26 (120 in 2025) and China healthcare rose 11.2% WoW on tech-selloff rotation; Korea coverage saw risk-reward updates for MedyTox, Classys, PharmaResearch and L&C Bio on 1Q26 results. LatAm GLP-1: Eurofarma semaglutide copy price cuts signal intensifying Brazil competition.

📄 Publicações e eventos

MS Healthcare GLP-1 Fill & Finish Site Visit — National Resilience (Aug 11, West Chester, OH)

Terence Flynn and Dan Bone host a site visit with National Resilience, a key CDMO partner in LLY's GLP-1 supply chain supporting ~50M Rx / ~$18B in sales, with access to CEO Bill Marth, CFO Andrew Montone and Cincinnati site leadership. MS estimates ~11.5M US patients currently on GLP-1s (~2.6M weekly TRx). Attendees must sign an NDA; RSVP by Friday, July 17.

Upcoming MS Healthcare events & 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference (Sep 14-16, NYC)

MS HC calendar includes HC Services 2Q EPS Preview lunch (Jul 10), BioPharma 2Q EPS Preview lunch w/ Terence Flynn (Jul 16), AI for Drug Discovery with Recursion (Jul 13), Diranersen Ph2 Alzheimer's AAIC discussion (Jul 14), Generate Biomedicines NDR (Jul 29), and Quest Diagnostics NDR (Aug 18). 1x1 requests for the 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference (Sep 14-16, NYC) are due July 17.

O dia foi dominado por dois grandes eixos temáticos: a corrida das modelos de IA de fronteira e a comemoração do 250º aniversário dos Estados Unidos. No campo da IA, cresceu a expectativa em torno do lançamento iminente do GPT-5.6 ("Sol"), com múltiplos posts de @kimmonismus indicando que o modelo já estaria presente nos apps do Codex e chegaria na próxima semana, prometendo um salto significativo de capacidade. Em paralelo, o Fable 5 da Anthropic ganhou destaque tanto por elogios quanto pela notícia de que sairá dos planos de assinatura, além de discussões sobre o ritmo acelerado de lançamentos da Anthropic e o uso de agentes autônomos.

O segundo grande tema foi patriótico e econômico: Tim Cook, Ilya Sutskever, Tim Sweeney e a SemiAnalysis celebraram o feriado de 4 de Julho, enquanto Brad Gerstner (@altcap) promoveu intensamente as "Trump Accounts", contas de investimento vinculadas ao nascimento de crianças americanas, incluindo o anúncio de doação de 2 milhões de ações da SpaceX. Esse tema uniu capitalismo, mercado de ações e celebração cívica.

No eixo de hardware e semicondutores, @jukan05 concentrou a maior parte das análises, com destaque para a disparada de preços de memória DRAM e NAND, margens recordes da SK hynix, movimentos de foundry da Samsung/Intel e dinâmicas do mercado coreano. A MacRumors e o 9to5Mac trouxeram os rumores da Apple — iOS 27.4, o "iPhone Ultra", limitações de RAM do iPhone 18 e o iPhone 17 Pro Max lacrado em uma cápsula do tempo do aniversário dos EUA.