quarta-feira, 24 de junho de 2026

Micron (MU) buyside bar set very high into June 24 after-close print

Buyside expects 3Q EPS guide of US$29-30, GM 84.5% and CY27 EPS US$175-200, far above Bloomberg consensus of 3Q EPS US$20.84, GM 82% and CY27 EPS US$129.75. MU has seen repeated ~10-13% pullbacks (Jun 23, Jun 5, Mar 30) with implied vol up to ~93% (~5.9% 1-sigma daily move); Jefferies sees pullbacks as re-entry points into the memory trade ahead of the AI data gap until ASML/TSMC on July 15.

CXMT 'sold out' but EUV constraint caps DRAM/HBM threat

Channel checks say CXMT is sold out (Dell, HP, Lenovo qualified) and may add 300-400K WPM, doubling capacity with a big HBM3 component (evidenced by Tokyo Seimitsu dicers/grinders and TOWA compression machinery sales). However, CXMT remains ~2-3 nodes behind (1Z/16nm G4), lacks EUV, is only ~7% of global DRAM bits vs 40% China demand, sits on the DOD 1260H list, and Samsung does not view it as a major threat.

SK Hynix reportedly reallocating from HBM4 back to standard DRAM

Economic Daily News reports SK Hynix is slowing its HBM4 ramp to reallocate resources to standard DRAM as DRAM margins now run >15ppt higher than HBM, with potential peak ~90% margin in 2026. Weakening HBM4 signals (Nvidia Rubin volumes revised down) reduce near-term urgency; SKH retains 40% revenue HBM exposure as market leader. A JEF event (ex-Samsung expert) expects DRAM contract prices +40-50% QoQ in 3Q and another +30-40% in 4Q26 vs consensus +15-20%.

ITEQ (6213) May EPS beats; new top pick on AI/CCL spillover

ITEQ posted May unaudited EPS of NT$1.21 (rev NT$3.803b, +8.2% MoM/+29.3% YoY; net profit NT$438m, +265% YoY), already 46% of Fubon's 2Q26 NP estimate, driven by higher premium CCL mix and price hikes. ITEQ is an AMD CPU play (25% AMD exposure in 2026, ~33% in 2027) benefiting from order spillover and PCIe 6.0; it trades at 23x 2027 P/E with ~61% EPS growth. Stock rose +10% on the day.

Kinsus (3189) and UMC (2303) also beat on May numbers

Kinsus reported May EPS of NT$0.91 (rev NT$4.2b, +33% YoY; net profit +29x YoY), ~47% of consensus 2Q26 EPS, on improving UTR and product mix. UMC posted May rev NT$22.94bn (+17.8% YoY) and net profit +203% to NT$8.45bn (EPS NT$0.68, ~53% of 1Q26's NT$1.29); 2Q capacity utilization averaged ~85%. Multiple brokers lifted UMC TP to ~$200 and the stock rose +6% (then +4.7%); UMC declined to comment on Intel 3nm partnership speculation.

Samsung +10% on reported ~90t won buyback for employee bonuses

Samsung shares rose ~10% after Yonhap reported the company is preparing a share buyback worth nearly 90t won to fund employee bonuses, with an announcement possible soon. Samsung confirmed in a regulatory filing it is considering a buyback for bonus payout but said no detailed schedule or size has been decided.

SK Hynix to raise up to 45.45t won via Nasdaq ADR listing

SK Hynix seeks to raise up to W45.45tn (~$29.4b) by listing ADRs on Nasdaq, with proceeds earmarked for semiconductor facility construction; official US trade date is July 10. Conversion is 1 ordinary share = 10 DRs, with new share price W2,555,000 (-1% vs the W2,580,000 KRX close). Shares rose ~+3% post-market.

STMicro signals fresh MCU price hikes effective June 28

Taiwan media report STMicro has informed customers of another round of MCU price hikes effective June 28. As mature-node processes move toward full utilization and AI demand for PMIC/MCU rises, further price increases are expected across analog/mature nodes.

TSMC reportedly raising prices on ~75% of product lines; MTK-GUC alliance chatter

Market chatter says TSMC has notified customers of price increases across all 7nm and more advanced processes — three times the scope and hike margin customers previously expected. Separately, there is speculation MediaTek may invest in GUC for a strategic alliance (MTK front-end, GUC turnkey).

Kaori (8996) breaks ground on Kaohsiung plant; fuel cell and cooling capacity expansion

Kaori held a groundbreaking ceremony for phase 1 of its new Kaohsiung plant (completion end-2028, possible volume production 2027), with phase 2 likely for AI-related products, plus a new Thailand fuel-cell plant starting construction this year. Fuel cell capacity is set to grow ~3x next year and 7-8x by 2028; plate heat exchanger capacity to rise another 30-50% next year, while liquid cooling shifts to efficiency optimization.

Taiwan supplier AGM highlights: Fulltech, Kinik, IET

Fulltech (1815) raised M6 prices on LEO fiberglass tightness and completed M9 spec (now in qualification). Kinik (1560) guided a stronger 2H, possibly >NT$10bn FY revenue a year early, with ~15% July price hikes on legacy grinding wheels and 12-inch reclaimed wafer capacity boosted to 400,000/month. IET (4971) expects record revenue this year with InP >50% of revenue, working with Freiberger on substrate yield.

Largan: weak June, big 2H jump expected on iPhone 18 variable-aperture lens

Jefferies (Titan) expects Largan revenue to slip slightly in June with 2Q26 revenue NT$14.4bn, GM 49.6% and EPS NT$36.06, then a big jump from July on iPhone 18 inventory builds. Largan is positioned as sole/main supplier of a new variable aperture lens with >30% HoH 2H26 sales growth; its CPO FAU project (PMLA and Fiber Array) is now the No.1 R&D priority with a pilot line ready September 2026.

Resonac: earnings forecasts raised on AI back-end semi materials strength

Jefferies (Thanh) raised Resonac estimates as AI/datacenter demand drives back-end materials (+38% YoY in Q1), with ASP hikes for CCL, NCF and TIM, plus rising memory-driven demand for high-purity gases and CMP slurries and +31% HDD media capacity in Singapore. Core OP forecasts lifted to ¥158bn (FY26), ¥204bn (FY27) and ¥282bn (FY28); PT on 16x EV/EBITDA assumes a Crasus Chemical IPO and >20% EBITDA margin.

ASUS: PC prices to keep rising single-digit in Q3

Per Economic Daily News and Commercial Times citing ASUS's Liao Yi-Hsiang, PC prices are expected to continue edging up in Q3 at a single-digit pace (~5%). Prices have already risen ~30% from end-2025 to Q2 2026, bringing the cumulative increase to roughly 35%.

China chip stocks rally; Taiwan May exports hit record

China chip names rallied on tech momentum (Hua Hong +16%, SMIC +9%, Gigadevice +8.7%) while the SOX fell -7.9% on the day. Taiwan May exports reached US$89.4b (best May ever); the MOEA estimates June export orders of US$89.5-91.5b (+49.8-53.1% YoY) and 1H orders of US$498.3-500.3b (+49% YoY).

📄 Publicações e eventos

SemiAnalysis: 'China's CXMT Is Set to Challenge DRAM Incumbents'

SemiAnalysis argues CXMT earnings upside is primarily ASP-driven (bit shipments +11% QoQ vs ASP +50%+), with market share rising from 9% (2025) to 12% (2027) and capacity reaching 350k wpm in 2026 (~17% of global DRAM by late decade). It flags a persistent tech gap (cost/bit >30% higher, ~100% commodity DDR/LPDDR mix) and HBM as the key weakness; implied valuation ~US$27bn. Jefferies/Fubon sales push back, noting the report omits the EUV constraint.

Fubon Research — ITEQ (6213) Buy, TP NT$313

Fubon reiterates Buy on ITEQ with TP NT$313 (23x 2027E P/E) after the May beat, estimating 2Q26 rev NT$11.801b (+29.1% QoQ), GM 15.6%, EPS NT$1.96. It forecasts EPS of NT$8.23 (2026) and NT$13.62 (2027), +98.1% and +65.5% YoY, on price hikes and AI-to-general server order spillover as peers cut E-glass CCL supply. Analyst: Kevin Lin.

Fubon Research — Kinsus (3189) Buy, TP NT$620

Fubon maintains Buy on Kinsus with TP NT$620 after May EPS of NT$0.91 (+29x YoY) beat expectations, at ~39%/47% of Fubon/consensus 2Q26 EPS. The beat is attributed to rising utilization and a favorable product mix; Fubon forecasts 2Q26 revenue of NT$12.23b (+10% QoQ). Analyst: Michelle.

Counterpoint Research — Global Memory Report

Counterpoint forecasts the global memory market to reach W2,100trn (~$1.4trn) by 2027E, with server share growing to 57%.

Tencent rolling out 'Dayuan' AI agent on WeCom, built on DeepSeek V4

Tencent has begun rolling out an AI agent called Dayuan to select users of WeCom, its enterprise communication app, per PR head Zhang Jun. Built on DeepSeek's latest V4 model, the agent uses natural language to analyze group chats, emails and calendar entries, and can automate recurring tasks such as daily industry briefs and weekly reports. Tencent rose +3.4% on the day.

Zhipu weighing multi-billion-dollar HK share sale post lock-up

Bloomberg reports AI firm Zhipu is considering a share sale to raise several billion US dollars in Hong Kong, possibly as soon as next month after its six-month IPO lock-up expires July 8, and also aims to issue shares in Shanghai. Shares rose as much as 16% before paring gains on the share-sale news.

Taiwan FSC approves NT$24.6bn life insurer cash dividends

The Financial Supervisory Committee approved NT$24.6bn of cash dividends for seven Taiwan life insurance names, including Fubon, Cooperative Hope Life, Prudential Life, KGI Life, Cathay Life, Taiwan Life and AGI Life.

📄 Publicações e eventos

Upcoming Jefferies TMT conferences & trips

Sept 7-14: Q3 2026 Techknowledge Tech Trip (Tokyo, Seoul KB Conference, Taipei). Early Dec: Q4 2026 Techknowledge Tech Trip (Seoul, Taipei, Kyoto, Tokyo).

O dia foi dominado por temas de inteligência artificial, com destaque para a Anthropic, que lançou o "Claude Tag" — uma forma de integrar o Claude diretamente ao Slack como membro proativo da equipe, com memória e identidade próprias. Boris Cherny e Andrej Karpathy ampliaram a repercussão, descrevendo o produto como um novo paradigma de interação e o início do "Claude Everywhere", afirmando que 65% do novo código do time de produto já é gerado pela versão interna da ferramenta. Em paralelo, Patrick Collison viralizou ao compartilhar uma resposta franca do Claude sobre o debate do ar-condicionado na Europa, o post de maior engajamento do dia.

O setor de semicondutores e memória teve forte presença, puxado por Jukan e pela SemiAnalysis. Os principais pontos foram a ascensão da chinesa CXMT como desafiante das incumbentes de DRAM (Samsung, SK Hynix e Micron), a listagem de ADRs da SK Hynix na Nasdaq prevista para 10 de julho, o aumento de preços da TSMC em processos de ponta (7nm e abaixo) e a queda das ações de semicondutores coreanas após declarações sobre compartilhar os benefícios da IA. Também houve discussão sobre a aparente ausência de intenção da China em fazer dumping no mercado de memória.

No universo Apple e hardware de consumo, o fluxo foi liderado por MacRumors e 9to5Mac, com novidades das betas do iOS 27, watchOS 27 e tvOS 27 (incluindo referências ao Siri AI no HomePod), rumores sobre o iPhone Fold e o iPhone 18 Pro, ofertas de Prime Day e a conversa revelada por Bob Iger sobre uma possível fusão entre Apple e Disney. Completaram a pauta o lançamento dos óculos inteligentes de US$299 da Meta antes da estreia da Apple, alertas regulatórios sobre riscos de IA na cibersegurança (Five Eyes) e o avanço da iniciativa Pax Silica liderada pelos EUA para garantir a cadeia de suprimentos de IA.