TSMC 2Q26 preview — beat expected, guidance raise in sight ahead of July 16 results
Fubon's Sherman expects 2Q GM of 67.1% (vs 66.2%), with 3Q rev guidance of 10-12% QoQ (above Street's high-single-digit) and potential FY26 rev growth outlook lifted to 30-35% YoY. Bulls see Arizona Phase 1 GM already ~50% with yields near 90%, red-hot leading-edge demand and FX tailwinds offsetting N2 dilution fears; FY27 GM seen ~70% with ~10% YoY pricing across customers including AAPL. Investors are watching C.C. Wei's tone as the cleanest read on whether the AI capex cycle is peaking.
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies / William Beavington - Jefferies ·
🔗 fonte C-Sun Manufacturing (2467 TT) — high-conviction TSMC advanced-packaging play, 37% upside
Jefferies flags C-Sun as one of the most compelling downstream ways to play a strong TSMC print; stock is +181% since Sherman Shang's Nov 27, 2025 initiation. Advanced packaging capacity set to expand ~6x on earlier-than-expected CoWoS equipment orders, Jan-Feb 2026 revenue up ~70% YoY, trading ~30x FY27F EPS (NT$16.08); potential Arizona role from 2028 and emerging CoPoS ramp (mass production targeted 2H27) add optionality.
William Beavington - Jefferies ·
🔗 fonte AAPL–AVGO expanded chip deal to top $30bn
Apple said its expanded agreement with Broadcom is expected to exceed $30 billion, involving manufacturing more than 15 billion chips in the US and supporting hundreds of jobs. Apple will also help AVGO upgrade its Colorado production facilities.
Rapidus to price 2nm foundry near ¥3.0-3.5mn ($18,500-$21,600) per wafer
Rapidus's chief says the company aims to price 2nm services at parity or slightly below TSMC. For comparison, Fubon's Sherman models TSMC 2nm pricing at 32.5-36.5K in 2027.
GOOGL TPU V9 packaging — INTC EMIB-T yield hurdle keeps TSMC as fallback
Sherman's checks suggest Google initially planned to use Intel's EMIB-T for TPU V9 production in late 2027/2028 and asked INTC to hit 95%+ yield before production. Despite some yield improvement, he thinks the target is very challenging by mid-2027, so Google will likely rely on TSMC's 2028 expansion.
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies
EMC — TP raised to NT$7,700 on CCL upgrade cycle and ASIC AI server demand
Jefferies' Kevin raises TP to NT$7,700 (from NT$6,600, 35x FY27F PE) and lifts FY26/27 EPS by 10.1%/16.8%. 2Q sales of NT$47.27bn (+43% QoQ, +110% YoY) beat; 2Q GM raised to 33.6%. Kyber's CCL move skipped M9 straight to M10, and strong ASIC demand (AWS Trainium 4, Google TPU V9 switching to M9) keeps high-end CCL in shortage, with ASIC growth seen outpacing GPU in 2027.
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies
CXMT to open STAR Market IPO subscription July 16 (~RMB29.5bn)
CXMT will open IPO subscription on July 16 (price inquiry July 13, payment July 20), issuing 6.688bn shares (10% of total; up to 7.691bn / 11.3% with overallotment). Of RMB29.5bn proceeds, RMB13bn goes to DRAM technology upgrades, RMB9bn to DRAM R&D and RMB7.5bn to production line upgrades.
Kioxia +8.3% as Bain Capital exits entire stake
Kioxia shares gained 8.3% after Bain Capital sold its entire stake, with investors viewing a key overhang as removed.
China semis rally on stronger tech support and CXMT IPO optimism
STAR 50 rose +8.4% with SMIC +13.7%, Hua Hong +11.8%, MetaX +16.9%, Cambricon +8.6%, Gigadevice +27.8% and AMEC +11.5% as China called for stronger tech support. MetaX said reports that some product orders are booked through next year and beyond are untrue; the stock fell ~7% from intraday highs on the clarification before closing up 17%.
KOSPI reverses +4% gain to -0.9% on suspected retail margin-call selling in memory
KOSPI pared all its early +4% gain amid >$1bn net retail selling suspected to be forced margin-call liquidation, pressuring SEC -1.6% and SK Hynix (which still closed +3.3%) after >30% pullbacks in under two weeks. Local institutions absorbed the selling while foreigners stayed near directionless ahead of TSMC (next week) and US Big Tech (two weeks) earnings for AI capex clarity.
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies
Innodisk — TP trimmed to NT$2,205 but estimates raised; record 2Q
Jefferies' Richard lowers TP to NT$2,205 (6x FY26 P/E, from 8x) on peer correction but raises FY26/27 revenue 9%/10% and EPS ~29%/30%. 2Q sales of NT$22.44bn (+70.3% QoQ, +641.1% YoY) beat, with GM ~62.5%. AI datacenter/server demand stays strong while IPC customers turn cautious on rising BOM; DRAM and NAND ASPs seen up >20% though 3Q GM is expected to fall ~8.2ppts QoQ to 54.3%.
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies
GUC 2Q26 revenue NT$13.9bn beats; Rita holds FY27 EPS at NT$200 (2x consensus)
GUC 2Q revenue of NT$13.9bn (+21% QoQ, +128% YoY) topped estimates, driven by turnkey NT$11.6bn (+188% YoY) on extra wafer support. Rita maintains a FY27 EPS forecast of NT$200 vs consensus NT$100, built on Google CPU (3.3-4.2mn units, ~NT$75-97 EPS), Tesla AI5 (2.5-3mn units, NT$72-90 EPS) and Horizon ADAS chips.
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies
Shanghai Fudan Micro guides 1H net profit up 313-416% YoY
Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics expects 1H26 revenue of ~CNY2.2-2.4bn (+19.6% to +30.5% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY800mn-1bn, up sharply from CNY193.6mn a year earlier (+313% to +416%). Ex non-recurring items, net profit is seen at CNY350-450mn (+92% to +147% YoY).
Conor O'Mara - Jefferies
China reportedly to allow NVIDIA H200 imports, but capped below 200K chips
Beijing is reportedly set to let firms like Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek import NVIDIA H200 chips, but the cap looks likely to land under 200,000 units — less than half the volume requested — restricted to AI training, with inference pushed toward domestic alternatives like Huawei's. Trendforce frames it as a partial, capped reopening versus the ~95% high-end share NVIDIA lost to export controls.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte NVIDIA next-gen Rosa CPU may adopt TSMC A16 with backside power delivery (2028)
NVIDIA's Rosa CPU (2028 launch, part of the Rosa-Feynman platform) may use TSMC's A16 process with backside power delivery — extending the tech to CPUs for the first time — with ~50%+ IPC gains from new Rigel cores. Trendforce sees deeper NVIDIA-TSMC integration and knock-on demand for CMP steps and premium carrier wafers.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte Samsung planning three Exynos SoC generations to cut Qualcomm dependency
Following the Exynos 2600, Samsung is reportedly planning three successive, increasingly advanced Exynos SoC releases to reduce reliance on Qualcomm, per the latest leak (Wccftech).
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan
Hynix memory-trade debate ahead of SKHY ADR listing
Ahead of the SK Hynix ADR (SKHY) listing, consensus expects the local line to trade up as the ADR prices at a 15-20% premium (TSM comp ~13%), with the long-ADR/short-local arb and MU/holdco (SK Square, SK Inc) flow-donor trades largely played out. The broader memory trade — most crowded globally, 30-40% off peaks — may pause on positioning, though Sherman and Edison see 4Q ASPs up another 30-40% QoQ; upcoming Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs could revive the 'source of funds' narrative.
2Q global PC shipments fall 4.9% YoY — first decline in nine quarters
IDC data shows 2Q global PC shipments fell -4.9% YoY (+0.4% QoQ), the first YoY decline after nine straight growth quarters, with memory/storage component shortages the primary culprit. Pricing is cushioning near-term revenue but further hikes (corroborated by SNX) are seen compressing demand; Lenovo leads at 24.4% share, Apple +130bps YoY, and a sharper 2H26 slowdown is expected.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte 📄 Publicações e eventos
Asian Semis — May WSTS data
YoY growth accelerates on strong memory and AI semis, with additional upside from broad-based price increases.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan
PC Market Tracker: PC Shipments Fall in 2Q26 with Sharper Slowdown Looming in 2H
JPM Hardware & Networking note on 2Q PC unit decline, near-term pricing lift and expected 2H26 deceleration.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte J.P. Morgan Taiwan FTM (9 Jul 26) — Taiwan substrate; Wiwynn Corp and more
JPM Taiwan First-Take-Morning covering Taiwan substrate and Wiwynn.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan
TSMC 2Q Earnings Preview (Gokul Hariharan)
JPM's Gokul published his 2Q TSMC earnings preview; full sales notes available by request.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan
TSMC Earnings Takeaway Call — Thursday July 16, 8:30am ET
Gokul Hariharan hosts a post-earnings TSMC takeaway call; registration via link.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte HW & Semis Management Access Forum — Aug 12, Palo Alto
JPM (Joe & Harlan) host AAOI, CDNS, LITE, LRCX plus optical panels (Ranovus & Avicena) and the 650 Group team.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte Custom ASIC Deep-dive — Aug 26, 9pm ET
Harlan Sur hosts a Custom ASIC deep-dive for Asia investors (US investors welcome).
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte Silergy IR (Matthew Chuang) — July 15, Boston
JPM hosts Silergy IR Matthew Chuang; last call for spots.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte 11th Annual JPM Asia Tech Tour — Aug 17-28 (Taiwan, Korea, Japan)
Gokul, Jay and team host their annual Asia Tech Tour; seats extremely limited.
Joshua Meyers - JP Morgan ·
🔗 fonte Jefferies TMT Conferences & Trips
Jefferies (Beavington) events including Aug 25-26 Chicago Semis/IT Hardware & Comm Tech Summit, Sep 7-14 Q326 Techknowledge Tech Trip (Tokyo/Seoul/Taipei), Sep 9-10 KB Conference Seoul, and Dec Q426 Tech Trip / Kyoto Conference.
William Beavington - Jefferies ·
🔗 fonte