segunda-feira, 22 de junho de 2026

Memory expert sees 3Q26 DRAM up 40-50% QoQ, super-cycle extends into 2027

Jefferies hosted ex-Samsung China memory consultant Ethan Tan, who expects 3Q26 memory prices to rise 40-50% QoQ and 4Q26 another 30-40% QoQ — above US/European investor expectations (15-20%) and Taiwan industry checks (~30%). Server DRAM seen +~60% vs ~33% for consumer. HBM is in shortage (industry capacity ~330kwpm rising to 480kwpm by 2027), limiting HBM price hikes to ~70% over 12 months; 2027 overall memory price hikes could slow to 40-45% YoY (vs ~6x YoY in 2026). On HBM4, Samsung is no longer seen at a tech disadvantage given the move to hybrid bonding, with its 4nm base die viewed as best-performing among the three vendors.

China memory threat limited near-term; CXMT 1.5-2 gens behind in DRAM

The expert believes China will not threaten the 2026/27 memory bull market due to the tech gap, though China's NAND tech could catch up by 2028. China's capacity expansion (70-80kwpm/yr in both DRAM and NAND vs JEFe of 50-60kwpm) would impact only low-end segments. CXMT's DRAM is 1.5-2 generations behind and, without EUV, cannot upgrade to DDR6/HBM3E; its HBM capacity is only a few thousand wafers/month, rising to 30kwpm by 2027 while still 2 gens behind. LTAs are now only with CSPs, taking up 50% of capacity (could reach 70%).

Apple to raise product prices on higher memory/storage costs; AMD seen as a beneficiary

Apple publicly stated for the first time it would be forced to raise prices to offset higher memory and storage input costs. Jefferies' Blayne sees DRAM pricing +30% in 3Q26 and +40% in 4Q26 as AI datacenter demand overwhelms supply, with NAND showing little sign of slowing and first greenfield NAND capacity not until 2H28 (continues to like SNDK). 8GB eMMC module pricing has risen from $1.50 in early C25 to $30+ in 18 months. As MTK/QCOM relinquish TSMC N4 capacity, AMD is positioned to absorb server CPU opportunity; AMD's 2nm Venice positioning is strong with TSMC expected to prioritize AMD over INTC. Intel's Lunar Lake (16/32GB LPDDR5X in COGS) is a gross-margin headwind.

Realtek and MediaTek raise prices on mature-process products

Realtek and MediaTek are reportedly adjusting prices on mature-process products across networking, connectivity, consumer electronics, and specialty chips, reflecting rising costs from wafer foundries, packaging/testing, and key materials. Realtek is set to raise prices by more than 10% on specific product lines starting in July, while MediaTek is expected to raise prices on its flagship chips in 2H FY26. Realtek hit limit-up (+9.9%) on the reports.

Asia TMT end-of-day: AI semi basket and SK Hynix rally; SOX +6.4%

SK Hynix closed +5.6% and topped Samsung Electronics' intraday market cap; the Japan AI-semi basket rose +3.7% on broker TP upgrades (Ajinomoto +6.4%, Ibiden +7.6%, SoftBank +1.9%) with two brokers raising AIDC capex estimates. Optical fibers jumped +7.7% after Fujikura's OP guidance raise (Furukawa +8.7%, YOFC +31.3%, Sumitomo Electric +19.4%). Taiwan semis broadly limit-up: TSMC +4.1%, UMC +10.0%, ASE +10.0%, Nanya Tech +9.9%, Macronix +9.8%, Kinsus +9.9%. Memory and WFE names led earnings-revision momentum.

Nanya Plastics limit-up 3rd straight session on CCL/T-glass progress and E-glass hikes

Nanya Plastics hit limit-up for a third consecutive day after a broker sharply raised its TP on good progress in CCL/T-glass. Management flagged potential further E-glass price hikes following Kingboard's recent ~15% hike on upstream material inflation. The NVDA supply chain has reportedly fully booked Nanya's capacity and is considering T-glass + E-glass hybrid solutions amid T-glass and low-DK glass shortages, driving an E-glass demand spike.

Nichicon raises aluminum electrolytic capacitor prices across entire portfolio

Per Economic Daily News, Nichicon has notified customers of price hikes across its full aluminum electrolytic capacitor portfolio; Liberty Times notes increases initially estimated at 9-12% could reach 10-15%, with Taiwanese supplier adjustments taking effect in June and July (MoneyDJ). Nichicon cited rising costs for aluminum foil, chemical materials, and electricity amid Middle East tensions plus capacity constraints from strong demand. Chemical-material costs have risen ~30-40% and metal raw materials ~10%.

Kinsus company meeting: AI substrate leverage and NVIDIA CPU cycle underappreciated

Jefferies' Hubert flagged Kinsus meeting takeaways: NVIDIA contributes >50% of revenue and the CPU ramp is the next driver — Grace CPU ~50% share today, Vera CPU ramping from 3Q26 targeting 70-100% share, with Vera 2027 volume upside to 5-7m+ units (consensus ~4m). Customer co-invest model funds ≥50% of equipment (NVIDIA/AMD); equipment lead times extended from ~6 to ~10 months. AI substrate GM 40-50%, blended GM targeted >30% next year, with a path to ~20% EBIT margin by 2028. Hybrid E-glass+T-glass material qualified by NVIDIA; customer base expanding to Tesla AI5 and China ASIC players.

TOTO +9.6% on plan to invest ¥80bn in semiconductor materials for 1nm era

TOTO rose +9.6% after Nikkei reported plans to invest ¥80bn (~$495mn) over the next 5 years to expand its semiconductor materials business, targeting next-gen chipmaking at the 1-nanometer range. Bloomberg earlier reported TOTO expects semiconductor-related spending to account for more than half of total capex in coming years.

TSMC cuts 28nm wafer starts >25% as Fab 15A converts to 4nm

Per Commercial Times, monthly wafer starts at Fab 15A — TSMC's primary 28nm site — have dropped more than 25% since the start of the year (from ~200,000 wafers to ~150,000 in June) as the facility is converted into a 4nm manufacturing base. Neighboring Fab 15B remains a key 7nm hub, while construction of Fab 25 in Taichung (future A14 node home) is advancing, with P1 civil works completed.

Ma-tek invests in silicon photonics analysis platform

At its June 18 annual shareholders' meeting, Ma-tek detailed investment in a silicon photonics wafer-and-chip optoelectronic analysis platform, with the first system due before August 2026 and second/third systems by end-2026 and early 2027. Ma-tek covers roughly 50% of the global silicon photonics supply chain; its top 10 silicon photonics customers contributed NT$191mn (US$6.4mn) of revenue in 2025.

MU Buyside Bars: memory a crowded AI long ahead of earnings; focus on SCAs

Ahead of Micron's print, JPM notes memory remains one of the most crowded longs in tech, with demand improving (incl. unexpected agentic CPU demand) and ASPs rising. Key focus is how much higher AI drives ASPs (GMs already north of 80%) and trends in Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs) — 3-5yr DDR & NAND deals with up-front payments. Buyside survey shows ~75% expect additional SCAs to be announced, ~40% estimate 30-50% of forward bit shipments covered; ASP expectations ~44.6% DRAM and ~45.9% NAND. Some investors reluctant to pay more than 7-8x earnings despite an unprecedented elongated cycle.

COHR CEO meetings: datacom TRx healthy, InP capacity to quadruple, GM reset higher

JPM's Samik Chatterjee hosted COHR CEO Jim Anderson, coming away with incremental positives: datacom transceiver pricing/demand healthy with supply still lagging (1.6T ramping before 800G peaks), and CPO cannibalization downplayed. CPO ramp timeline reaffirmed (scale-out C2H26, scale-up C2H27); InP capacity on track to quadruple over two years; OCS SAM (recently doubled to $4bn) may prove conservative. Gross margin target of '>42%' reiterated with a hint at a reset higher, with next fiscal year's bonus tied to GM progression.

Amazon in talks to sell chips to undercut Nvidia

Amazon's AI chief Peter DeSantis said the company has begun discussions with potential customers about selling its chips, but declined to name them, in a bid to undercut Nvidia (Bloomberg).

Google and MediaTek deepen TPU v9 'Triggerfish' collaboration

Per Ming-chi Kuo, MediaTek has exclusively secured Google's Triggerfish TPU order — a 1-2 million unit deal priced ~30% above its predecessor — cementing its status as Google's preferred next-gen AI silicon partner. Triggerfish is a v9 variant with stronger inference (2-3x SRAM capacity, a new simulation die, HBM4E memory) addressing the CPU and memory walls. Production is expected to begin in late 2027 and ramp in 2028.

US tells ASML it's concerned China may have a top EUV tool

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed concerns to ASML's senior leaders that one of its top-of-the-line EUV machines may have reached China in violation of US-led export restrictions. The situation could add strain to US-EU relations as the US seeks to limit China's access to advanced chipmaking technology (Bloomberg).

China's InP export relief falls short; suppliers race to secure 2027 supply

China began approving a new batch of indium phosphide (InP) substrate exports in late May 2026, but optical communications supply chain sources said the relief remains limited and is unlikely to fully resolve material shortages near-term, prompting suppliers to race to secure 2027 supply (Digitimes).

Memory's big three on course for blockbuster 2026 on soaring contract prices

The memory industry is entering a super cycle, with industry sources saying 3Q26 contract price gains show no sign of slowing amid tight upstream supply. Overall increases could reach 30-40%, after 2Q26 contract prices already climbed 40% (Digitimes).

Intel-Nvidia co-developed PC processor to reportedly debut at CES 2028

Per VideoCardz (via Digitimes), Intel's first x86 SoC integrating an Nvidia RTX GPU has been added to its internal product roadmap, expected to launch in 1Q28 and potentially make its public debut at CES 2028.

📄 Publicações e eventos

JPM HW/Semis Weekly — MU Buyside Bars, Tech HW Pre-Q Check-ins, HDD, AI Capex & WFE TAM

Joshua Meyers' weekly including MU Buyside Bars, Samik's Tech HW pre-quarter check-ins, HDD thoughts, AI capex & WFE TAM model updates and key company research.

JPM Global Hardware/Semis Research — multiple company notes

Research updates including Sony Group (6758, raising estimates and PT), Kioxia Holdings (285A, raise PT to ¥155,000 on re-rating catalysts), Asia Tech valuations, Powerchip (upgrade to OW on memory foundry pricing), Comet Holding (OW), Inficon (OW), BE Semiconductor (more bullish Investor Day 2026), and Chipbond (raise PT to NT$225, Neutral, on silicon photonics).

Calls & Events — Chipbond group call, Lenovo Investor Day, China PCB Tour, Asia Tech Tour

MU Buyside call Wed 4pm ET (analyst callback 6pm). Alan Cheng of Chipbond hosts a group call June 23 at 9am ET (registration link). Lenovo hosts its inaugural Investor Day in New York on June 25. JPM Asia team hosts a China PCB Tour across the Greater Bay Area July 8-10, and its 11th Annual Asia Tech Tour across Taiwan, Korea & Japan August 17-28.

Jefferies TMT Tech Trips — Q2/Q3/Q4 2026 Techknowledge

Upcoming Jefferies TMT conferences and trips: May 25-29 Q2 Techknowledge Tech Trip (Tokyo/Seoul/Taipei); Sept 7-14 Q3 2026 Techknowledge Tech Trip (Tokyo, Seoul KB Conference, Taipei); Early Dec Q4 2026 Techknowledge Tech Trip (Seoul, Taipei, Kyoto, Tokyo).

JPM Global Strategy: AI chip rally raises risk of market tantrums

JPM strategist Nikos Panigirtzoglou warns the rally in chip stocks poses risk of market tantrums, framing two competing narratives: AI driving rates higher via strong compute/datacenter demand, versus AI productivity gains being deeply disinflationary, leaving room for easier policy. Drawing on the 1990s tech bubble, he notes the bar for cutting rates today is high and expects AI build-out leadership (compute, semis, infrastructure) to continue, with narrowing breadth and rising intra-sector correlations increasing fragility, air pockets, and volatility.

Mag7 net flows drop off sharply over the last month

Jefferies' Mag7 net flow data (Jeff Favuzza) shows a glaring drop-off in the last month. Investor talking points: continued frustration over FCF degradation (chasing subsectors where CSPs are spending), and concerns around recent/rumored equity raises (GOOGL's raise, META's rumored raise, MSFT not denying a raise).

Software expert call: code is no longer a moat

Jefferies' Brent hosted a SignalFire Co-Founder/CTO call. Key takeaways: the credible AI threat to software is not enterprises replacing core systems with vibe-coded apps but that code is no longer a moat, shifting defensibility toward data, sticky workflows, and network effects; GOOG benefits from vertical integration, customer data, and ad monetization (META not to be counted out given compute access); and AI demand-driven capacity constraints benefit hyperscalers, neoclouds, and database companies as AI workloads consume more data.

Microsoft's Satya Nadella: 'We can't let AI giants eat the economy'

Nadella is breaking ranks with frontier model operators, warning the public won't tolerate control in the hands of a few and betting the next AI value shift flows to cheaper, commoditized models and enterprise control. With low-cost model rollouts, a potential DeepSeek partnership, and a big frontier deal, Microsoft is positioning itself as the infrastructure layer that wins regardless of which frontier model leads (WSJ).

US acts to speed up power grid hook-ups for AI data centers

FERC approved a series of orders aimed at removing bottlenecks that risked slowing the AI boom, targeting handling of power requests within 90 days. In turn, datacenters could be required to bring their own power or curtail demand during high-stress periods, and will be on the hook for costs associated with needed grid upgrades (Bloomberg).

Google DeepMind VP John Jumper leaving to join Anthropic

Per Bloomberg (cited in JPM's macro section), Google's DeepMind VP John Jumper is leaving the company to join Anthropic; GOOG/L was among the biggest pre-market Mag7 laggards (-1.6%).

Japan plans ¥370trn public-private investment across 17 strategic fields toward FY40

Per a Nikkei article, Japan plans to allocate over ¥370trn (as of June 19) for 17 strategic fields via joint public-private investment toward FY40. Areas include AI & semiconductors (~¥80trn; physical AI ¥10.5trn, AI semiconductor ~¥70trn), digital & cybersecurity (~¥50trn), information & communications (~¥30trn), quantum (~¥10trn), defense (¥5trn), aerospace (~¥20trn), biotech (~¥30trn), medical (~¥40trn), energy/GX (~¥30trn), nuclear fusion (¥3trn), and content/media (~¥30trn).

China 618: online GMV +3.2% YoY; Alibaba leads market share at 48.8%

Per Fudan University's consumer market big data lab, online GMV rose 3.2% YoY during the 618 campaign and industry GMV grew 6.4% YoY (vs 7.5% in the first phase, and 10.4% in 2025). By platform, Douyin grew fastest at +10.8%, then BABA +6.7%, JD +4.6%, Kuaishou +4%, PDD +1.4%. Market share: BABA 48.8%, DY 19.1%, JD 19%, PDD 9.6%, Kuaishou 3.5%.

Japan Capital Goods: Jefferies adjusts pecking order, Harmonic Drive top pick

Jefferies' Sho believes a bull-case earnings scenario for early-cycle/factory automation stocks may already be in sell-side and buy-side forecasts. As of June 18, Harmonic Drive Systems is the most preferred name (humanoid, aerospace, defense, medical exposure in precision reduction gears), followed by Hitachi (6501), Mitsubishi Electric (6503), SMC (6273), Keyence (6861), Nabtesco (6268), Daifuku (6383), IHI (7013), Kawasaki Heavy (7012), and Mitsubishi Heavy (7011). Prefers Hitachi over Mitsubishi Electric and IHI over KHI/MHI.

Apple foldable iPhone supply chain gears up for 2026 launch

Per Digitimes, citing a source at an Apple supplier, the company has started delivering components in small batches for its first foldable iPhone, with guidance pointing to a September 2026 unveiling and an autumn 2026 release timetable despite delay rumors. Foxconn had reportedly begun trial production.

What does J.D. Vance think of AI?

Per The Atlantic, VP Vance has emerged as the Trump administration's most substantive AI voice, resisting heavy regulation while warning against Big Tech monopolization. He is bullish on AI productivity gains, dismisses widespread job-loss fears but acknowledges wealth-concentration risks, and draws a 'humans must retain moral decision-making' line on autonomous weapons. The key investor variable is whether his middle-ground doctrine hardens into coherent policy.

Macro: Strait of Hormuz tensions, UK PM resignation, mixed equities

SPX -0.2%, NDX flat, RTY -0.2%; 10Y at 4.485%, VIX 17.52, Gold +130bps to $4,210, WTI ~$75. US futures lower after Iran again declared the Strait of Hormuz would be closed, though overnight US-Iran talks showed 'major progress.' All Mag7 lower pre-market (TSLA -1.4%, GOOG/L -1.6%). In Europe, Keir Starmer resigns as UK PM with a new Labour leader expected by September; Semi, Electrification and Momentum baskets led while Defence and Luxury lagged. Asia mostly higher (CSI +2.4%, NKY +1.5%, KOSPI +0.7%, HSI -0.7%).

O dia foi dominado por dois grandes eixos: a transição de liderança na Apple e a aceleração da corrida por novos modelos de IA. O post de maior engajamento foi a mensagem de Tim Cook pelo Dia dos Pais, mas o tema de maior peso noticioso foi a iminente passagem de comando para John Ternus, que segundo relatos pretende reerguer a importância do time de design da Apple. Em paralelo, surgiram diversas notícias sobre o roadmap de produtos da Apple — incluindo cerca de 20 novos produtos previstos entre 2026 e 2027, recursos do iOS 27/macOS 27 e possíveis aumentos de preço do iPhone 17.

No campo de inteligência artificial, a expectativa em torno de lançamentos foi intensa, com forte buzz sobre o Claude Sonnet 5, GPT-5.6 e o modelo "Mythos" da Anthropic, que teria evoluído rapidamente e levantado debates sobre segurança nacional (NSA) e acesso restrito da Europa a tecnologia de ponta. Também ganharam destaque discussões sobre vibe coding, ferramentas como o Codex, o avanço do modelo chinês GLM-5.2 e o alerta de Yann LeCun sobre o risco de uma bolha de IA prestes a estourar.

O setor de semicondutores e hardware concentrou notícias estratégicas: previsão de forte alta nos preços de memória (40–50% QoQ no 3T26), a SK hynix ultrapassando a Samsung em valor de mercado, novas fabs da Samsung em Pyeongtaek, a colaboração Google–MediaTek no chip TPU v9 "Triggerfish" e detalhes sobre a linha-piloto CoPoS da TSMC. Completaram o quadro do dia as promoções de produtos Apple antecipando a Prime Day (AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch, AirPods Max 2) e movimentos na cadeia de suprimentos ligados a robótica e controles de exportação.