sexta-feira, 19 de junho de 2026

Equities strong on the week, semis make new highs on Iran peace-deal optimism

Jefferies notes equities firmly up on the week with beta the best-performing basket and semis making new highs, as a peace deal raised hope that the opening of the Strait of Hormuz would ease inflation risk. Oil and Treasury yields ticked lower while VIX dropped almost 10%; GEV rose another 6% (+20% since the SPCX IPO pricing) on positive AI capex headlines. Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Comm Services led, while Energy, Financials and Healthcare lagged.

AIXTRON — a multi-year AI capex play on InP optical transceiver demand

Jefferies sizes the indium phosphide (InP) opto-tool opportunity using its US team's optical model, which forecasts scale-up/scale-out transceiver units rising ~5x from 2025-2028, benefiting Aixtron given its ~100% market share in InP MOCVD tools. The bank raises 2027/28 revenue forecasts to €790m / €980m on stronger InP and GaN build-out demand, driving 2028 gross margin to 46% and underpinning a new Street-high price target. Management guides to a 60-120 InP annual tool opportunity, with potential further upside from Nokia capacity build-outs.

ASML CEO talks up Terafab opportunity and a multi-year AI-driven semi cycle

With sentiment on semicaps improving, Jefferies highlights renewed chatter on Terafab and a Bloomberg interview in which the ASML (ASML NA) CEO sounded bullish, saying added capacity is potential upside and that the market is likely to be supply-limited for AI semiconductors for several years. The CEO framed Terafab as a major fab project alongside large Korean DRAM (million-wafer) projects, and noted a pull-forward in orders for both DUV and EUV machines as customers extend longer-term visibility.

📄 Publicações e eventos

Aixtron — Sizing the InP tool opportunity (full note)

Jefferies' full research note on Aixtron, raising 2027/28 revenue forecasts on InP/GaN demand and underpinning a new Street-high price target, accompanied by a reminder of analyst Blayne's earlier upward revision to AI transceiver unit estimates.

Call — Asia Supply Chain: Management Meeting Key Takeaways (Tues 23 June)

Jefferies hosts Sherman Shang and Conor O'Mara on June 23 (8am ET / 1pm UKT / 2pm CET) to discuss key takeaways from management meetings across Korea, Taiwan and Japan, covering memory (Samsung, Kioxia, SimmTech), substrates, CCL, wafers (SUMCO), liquid cooling, ASIC design (GUC), foundry (Samsung) and semicap, with focus on agentic AI, memory, GPUs/ASICs, AI supply chain, foundry and semicap equipment.

China AI: US-China model gap widens; API pricing diverges on hardware costs

Jefferies (Edison) notes Anthropic's Fable/Mythos 5 now ranks No. 1 in model intelligence globally, widening the US-China gap from 8% to 13%, with 'anti-distillation' features and US export controls making it harder for Chinese open-source models to catch up. China faces a compute shortage for inference and price competition: average US API pricing rose 89% from March to June (Anthropic doubled Fable 5 pricing vs Opus 4.8), while Chinese API pricing fell 2% MoM, driven by a 33% cut at MiniMax. Edison views intensifying AI-lab price competition in China — against rising memory and chip costs — as the biggest concern for AI ROI.

📄 Publicações e eventos

Call — Global A.I.: Could It All Be Built on Broken Economics? (Tues 30 June)

Jefferies' Aniket Shah hosts Ed Zitron (CEO of EZPR, host of the Better Offline podcast) on June 30 at 11:00 AM ET / 4pm UK to examine the bear case on generative AI's unit economics, the gap between hype and durable demand, and what investors may be underestimating as costs, returns and expectations collide.

O dia foi dominado pela agenda de IA, com forte presença de OpenAI e Anthropic. Greg Brockman (OpenAI) liderou os anúncios, apresentando o ensino do Codex por demonstração, o novo app do Codex, controles de gastos e analytics de crédito para empresas, além de avanços médicos — incluindo o uso de IA para encontrar 18 novos diagnósticos em 376 casos antes não resolvidos e uma colaboração com centenas de médicos para tornar o ChatGPT melhor em saúde. Boris Cherry destacou o uso de Artifacts no Claude Code como divisor de águas no fluxo de trabalho, o post de maior engajamento do dia.

No eixo corporativo e geopolítico da IA, a conta @kimmonismus concentrou a narrativa em torno do Fable 5 da Anthropic: negociações com Trump, esforço dos fundadores para reativar o modelo, questões de segurança e o acesso antecipado via 'project Glasswing'. Houve ainda movimentos de talento relevantes — contratações de peso pela OpenAI (Noam Shazeer, Dean Ball e a saída de Ha Thai da Meta para liderar comunicação de dispositivos, sinalizando o primeiro hardware da OpenAI) — e debates sobre alinhamento, benchmarks, datacenters e exportação de máquinas EUV da ASML para a China.

No universo Apple/hardware, o destaque foi o possível aumento de preço do iPhone 18 Pro, que poderia partir de US$ 1.399 (salto de US$ 300 sobre o 17 Pro), além de um novo exploit não corrigível afetando chips A12 e A13. A Apple também anunciou grandes mudanças na App Store no Brasil (marketplaces alternativos, com o AltStore PAL chegando ao país), novidades de iOS 27, watchOS 27 e macOS 27, e movimentos na cadeia de suprimentos com TSMC (nó A14) e fornecedores de NVIDIA.