Resumo do dia — toque num card para ir ao detalhamento com fontes.
O dia foi dominado por notícias do ecossistema de semicondutores e infraestrutura de IA, com a conta @jukan05 concentrando boa parte do engajamento. Destaques incluem o anúncio da SemiAnalysis sobre seu novo laboratório de teardown (STEEL) em Oregon, com dezenas de milhões em cap…
Sem relatório neste dia.
Sem dados do Semi News neste dia.
↑ voltar ao topoEdison Lee notes Anthropic's Fable/Mythos 5 now ranks No.1 in model intelligence globally, widening the US-China gap from 8% to 13%, with 'anti-distillation' features and US export controls making it harder for Chinese open-source models to catch up. China AI faces a compute shortage for inference plus API price competition (June China API pricing -2% MoM on a 33% MiniMax cut) while hardware/memory costs skyrocket; US avg API pricing rose 89% Mar–Jun. Edison sees intra-China price competition as the biggest risk to AI ROI.
Reuters reports NVDA is telling Chinese customers its new Vera CPU could be available as soon as August and they can begin placing orders. One major Chinese cloud company is reportedly planning to order 300+ servers (2 Vera CPUs each), deploying for testing first before deciding on official orders.
On Jun 11 Shengyi lifted continuing connected-transaction procurement quotas for Novoray (Rmb170m→310m, +82%, silica powder), Yangzhou Techia (Rmb136m→350m, +157%, CE resin) and Shandong Xingshun (Rmb85m→460m, +441%, PPO resin), a +186% total uplift implying ~357% YoY aggregate growth. Jefferies reads this as both broad CCL demand strength and Sytech's progress penetrating AI customers on high-frequency/high-speed CCL. Forecasts NVDA CCL demand ~1.5m sheets/month and ASIC 2.0–2.5m sheets/month by 2027.
Michelle Huang (Fubon) trims near-term revenue, forecasting Delta 2Q sales of NT$181bn (+14% QoQ/+46% YoY), GM 37.1%, OPM 18.6%, EPS NT$9.42. Checks indicate small 800V shipments for NVDA in 2H26 (<0.5k) with a 10% HVDC adoption assumption in VR (~6k). No Kyber shipment expected in 2027E; HVDC (400V+800V) seen at 5–10% of Delta's FY27E revenue.
A Suzhou court ruled Infineon infringed two Innoscience GaN patents, banning IFX GaN sales into China. Global GaN revenue for IFX is small (<€80m, <1% of sales), so impact is negligible. Last month the US ITC ruled Innoscience infringed IFX patents, banning its US sales; bans likely favor local suppliers in each market for AI power.
Industry checks suggest CPO's OIO tech for GPU-GPU scale-up could be pushed out 2–3 years (2030–31) on interposer overheating, delaying CW laser/OE/FAU/OF demand though optical modules still grow 2026–29. Takeaways from the Nasdaq Conference and AMAT/NVMI NDRs reinforce AI-dominated SPE demand with visibility into C28, supporting WFE toward $200B+ and potentially $250B+; AMAT is Jefferies' US top pick on DRAM, leading-edge logic and advanced packaging.
Titan Chung (Fubon) forecasts NVDA rack shipments of 75k in C26 rising to 100–110k in C27, with Google TPU racks of 60k (C26) and 105k (C27). Global server shipments +20% YoY in C26 (AI servers +72%, general +12%). Wistron AI server >100% YoY, Quanta AI server >2x C26, Hon Hai ~30k NVDA racks C26/50–55k C27; AMD CPU lead times have extended past 20 weeks on agentic-AI demand.
MLCC stocks rallied sharply overnight (Murata +18%, Taiyo Yuden +23%, SEMCO +16%, Yageo +10%, Walsin +10%) as Taiwan brokers flag MLCC as the next AI-server bottleneck with usage-per-rack and ASPs set to grow several fold. Walsin's AGM cited supply tightness beyond 2027E and book-to-bill rising to 1.3–1.4x. SEMCO is expanding into Si-Cap (silicon capacitors), where only SEMCO, Murata and TSM currently have capability.
Digitimes reports China officially approved a batch of InP substrate exports in late-May, which should alleviate optical supply bottlenecks. If confirmed, this is positive for COHR, LITE, AAOI, AXTI and IQE; in Asia VPEC and LandMark were up +5%/+6% overnight.
JPM circulated its MU F3Q26 buyside earnings survey (vs $33.5b guide/$34.7b Bloomberg, GM 81%, EPS $19.15 guide). Pre-quiet-period checks: WDC/STX still very good with pricing the bigger upside driver in a supply-constrained environment (~90% sequential incremental GM); CLS, FN, TER, SNX sounded better. AMD pre-quiet call flagged agentic AI driving a huge server opportunity as GPU de-risks; JBL preview anticipates a typical beat & raise but not yet F27 visibility.
Joe Moore's Semis Bus Tour with INTC, MRVL and ALAB CEOs was bullish on value shifting toward interconnect, scale-up, optics, packaging and memory. INTC's Lip-Bu Tan doubling down on 14A foundry milestone (target 0.1–0.2 defect density by 1Q27, volume ~2029). Erik Woodring raised HDD targets (STX to $1,035, WDC to $650) after Asia checks showing a longer cycle, with nearline price/TB targeted at $25–30 over 2–3 years; STX remains top pick and HDDs his preferred AI play.
Jacky He initiates the Chinese copper foil sector with BUY ratings on Defu (301511 CH) and TGCF (301271 CH), reading across to leader Mitsui Kinzoku. Global copper foil TAM seen growing ~15% CAGR to Rmb371bn (~US$55bn) by 2030E, with high-end HVLP foil demand at 30–40% CAGR to >6kt/month. Defu is top pick on aggressive high-end expansion; TGCF leads in HVLP (passed HVLP4 qualification).
Jefferies China technology research on the widening US-China model intelligence and token-price gap.
US semiconductors note recapping the Jefferies Nasdaq Conference, AMAT and NVMI NDRs and ODM rack-shipment forecasts.
EU semis note examining 800V HVDC and CPO delay reports and impact on European chip suppliers (IFX, STM, Aixtron, Soitec).
BUY, PT Rmb100.00. Note on Shengyi's procurement quota increase as a signal of high-end AI CCL demand and Sytech share gains.
BUY, PT KRW2,000,000. Jeff reiterates TP on leverage to Apple's 2026–28 iPhone strategy; 2Q26 OP est. W202.8bn (+18x YoY, 39% above consensus), FY26 OP W1.3tn (+96% YoY). AI substrates (SOCAMM2, GDDR7) and server FC-BGA as long-term drivers.
China electronic-components initiation on the copper foil sector with BUY on Defu and TGCF.
Days after release, the Trump administration imposed export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5, banning all foreign governments, companies and individuals (and even non-US staff) from using them; Anthropic disabled access for all customers to ensure compliance. The move reportedly followed concerns that a China-linked group jailbroke the model, with AMZN (a close compute partner/investor) said to have flagged the vulnerability. David Sacks says Dario refused to fix the jailbreak; senior Anthropic staff are in DC seeking to restore access. The EU called it a 'wake-up call' on US AI dependence.
MS sees limited stock implications (prior Anthropic-USG disputes resolved given its technology strength) though AMZN could underperform. The White House is reportedly unlikely to extend restrictions to other AI firms, though Anthropic argues OpenAI GPT-5.5 has the same issue. France's Mistral AI is reportedly raising ~€3B at a ~€20B valuation; OpenAI faces a coalition of state AG investigations.
META plans to impose token limits on employees after internal AI usage exploded, reportedly tracking to spend billions on internal use alone in 2026, with a structured token-allocation model planned for 2027. It is building 'AI Gateway' to track real-time usage/spend/budgets and steering staff toward internal coding assistant MetaCode (formerly Devmate). Separately, OpenRouter's new 'Fusion' API pools multiple models and nearly matched Fable 5 deep-research benchmarks (64.7% vs 65.3%) at about half the cost.
Satya Nadella argues durable AI advantage comes from owning the enterprise learning loop — converting a company's workflows, judgment and domain knowledge into AI capability — rather than owning the best model. MSFT positioning favors controllable, sovereign, company-specific systems (private evals, RL environments, knowledge bases, agentic workflows, swappable foundation models).
Ant Group is testing a new Alipay design with an AI agent interface that lets users book rides, order coffee/takeout or buy mutual funds, following Tencent's recently announced WeChat AI agent prototype — underscoring continued fierce China internet competition.
ROKU rose +20% on Friday amid market chatter that the company is in talks with at least one US media company about a potential sale or merger.
Reports conflict on the foldable timeline (Economic Daily: iPhone 18 in December, first foldable early 2027 at ~11M units/$2,000 base; TrendForce implies a fall debut). MS's Sharon Shih set preliminary Sept-quarter iPhone builds at 54M (-2% YoY), below seasonality, with only iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max and foldable launching; still expects 7–8M foldable builds in C2H26. Mark Gurman says Siri AI is 'good enough' and iOS 27 builds already support third-party models beyond OpenAI.
Emmet Kelly raised the EU DC capacity forecast +15% to >40GW, with the EU DC market growing +21% YoY to 2030 despite the 'five Ps' constraints (Power, Planning, Price, People, Priority). Capacity lag vs the US implies >10x upside from ~8–9GW today; key beneficiaries AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, META, with EQIX/DLR co-los and potential EU-owned DCs.
China internet research; Thomas Chong reiterates top China AI picks BABA, Tencent, Baidu, Kuaishou and Kingsoft Cloud.
China internet AI series previewing the FORCE conference and Weixin AI developments.
US software/internet note on Microsoft Copilot upside and Datadog momentum.
HOLD, PT lowered to $185 (from $210). Lowering F27/28 estimates amid the AI disruption narrative ahead of the F3Q26 print.
BUY, PT $65. Takeaways from CTSH meetings at the Jefferies Nasdaq Tech Conference.
Morgan Stanley-hosted bus tour visiting BABA, MiniMax, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD, TCOM, BILI, VNET, Kingsoft and Kuaishou.
At Month 6, Prader-Willi syndrome patients achieved ~3.1% mean BMI reduction (N=17), similar across adults (−3.11%) and pediatrics (−3.00%), supporting a path toward the ≥5% placebo-adjusted bar at 52 weeks. Hyperphagia data was compelling, with 8/10 moderate-to-severe patients achieving ≥7-point HQ-CT improvement. Mike Ulz views results as encouraging for the program.
Judah Frommer comes away constructive: updated EHA data for '989 (mCALR mAb) keep the story alive for pivotal development, especially in ET where platelet responses look fast and durable with acceptable tolerability. In myelofibrosis the picture is more mixed — manageable safety and encouraging anemia improvement but softening spleen/symptom responses concentrated in JAK-ineligible and Type-1 CALR subgroups. Key catalyst remains 1L MF Ph1b data in 2H26.
Despite building bearish sentiment in THC influenced by peer developments, Craig views the challenging hospital backdrop as favoring the best operators and expects Tenet to come out on top. He sees reiterating guidance (1–2% acute volume growth, 3–6% same-store ASC revenue growth) as enough for shares to climb, and favors a THC vs HCA pair trade (though hesitant to short the crowded HCA into 2Q).
ABVX rose ~2.5% pre-market after adding 3 slides to its corporate deck late Friday detailing UC-associated risks, patient-level details on non-melanoma skin cancers, and details on the 2 cancers (prostate, breast) seen in the P3 high-dose arm.
Via its venture arm, Eli Lilly invested in startup Abridge to more precisely identify patients qualifying for specific clinical trials. Abridge, which works with 300+ health systems (Kaiser Permanente, Mayo Clinic), flags trial-eligible patients from medical records and clinical conversations, cutting through traditional CRO recruitment middlemen.
Reports that Matt Holt/Thoreau Group (backed by Apollo) is nearing a ~$12B deal for Ensemble Health, an end-to-end revenue-cycle management asset, are viewed as a read-across for WAY. Craig thinks WAY looks cheap but lacks catalysts ahead of a late-August analyst day, with rising PE-interest questions as the stock drifts lower.
Notable movers: RYTM +5.2% (PWS data), NTLA +4.5% (additional Ph3 Lonvo-z data), LXEO +3.4% (LX2006 regulatory update), MLYS +2.6% (lorundrostat HF biomarkers), CRNX +2.1% (PATHFNDR OLE), AGIO +1.6% (RISE UP Ph3 mitapivat), ASND (TransCon PTH 86% response in Ph3 PaTHway), JNJ -0.6% ($1B Jacksonville investment), AMGN -1.7% (loses Harbour Antibodies patent suit, ~$20M damages), INCY -1.7% (Ph1 '989 update).
Craig Hettenbach note (MCap US$15.04bn) arguing the hospital backdrop distinguishes top operators and THC should come out on top.
Judah Frommer note (MCap US$21.68bn) summarizing EHA updates for '989 in 2L MF/ET plus LLY/Ajax and KPTI MF updates.
Mike Ulz note (MCap US$6.06bn); pivotal Ph2 PROGRESS Cohort 1 showed reductions in HO lesion volume/new lesions/flares with no new HO lesions in OLE at 48 weeks.
Sean Laaman note (MCap US$8.24bn) expecting minimal impact from the proposed 2029 Medicare price rule given orphan exclusions, biosimilars and limited Medicare exposure.
Terence Flynn hosts Dr. Marco Ruella (Penn) on the evolving MM landscape — 2L+ BCMA bispecifics (JNJ Tecvayli vs PFE/REGN/ABBV), CAR-T vs bispecific sequencing (Carvykti, GILD anito-cel Dec PDUFA), and in vivo CAR-T (LLY/Kelonia, LEGN). MM framed as a $35bn+ peak opportunity with JNJ positioned to retain leadership. Request via Sales; no replay.
Save-the-date for the MS 24th Annual Global Healthcare Conference at the New York Marriott Marquis; formal invitation to follow.
Dan Bone hosting a Healthcare Services Ideas Exchange Lunch (Jun 22, w/ Erin Wright & Craig Hettenbach) and a SMID Biotech Downside/Short Ideas Exchange Lunch (Jun 23).
SPCX closed up +19% on its Friday debut and rose another +4% pre-market after FTSE Russell confirmed a fast-track into the Russell indices at the Jun 26 rebalance. MS US Equity Strategy estimates a 90.4% Growth / 9.6% Value style probability and ~$2.6bn in passive inflows. Taiwanese media is hyping SPCX-themed AI1 satellite plays (Hon Hai, Quanta, Wistron in GB300 rack assembly; LandMark, Elite Advanced Laser in optical).
Mike Wilson notes earnings revisions breadth and financial conditions are likely peaking from a rate standpoint, so the recent correction could linger into 2Q earnings season. He still expects the bull market to continue as NTM EPS rises into year-end and the Fed/Treasury support conditions; favors interest-rate/oil-sensitive cohorts (Discretionary Goods, Transports, Regional Banks). MS PB notes elevated momentum risk with crowding in Tech, Semis, Memory, Global AI and Korean equities.
Sean Diffley raised FY26 domestic box office estimates to $9.9B (FY27 $10.2B) as Gen Z/Alpha return to theaters; LION seen as an attractive consolidation target. Cameron Mansson-Perrone views resale-ticketing regulatory threats as narrow vs healthy ticketing growth, preferring LYV (PT $200, ~19x EV/fwd EBITDA), with SEAT/STUB most exposed to resale price caps. DOJ approved PSKY's $11B WBD acquisition (still under state AG scrutiny); NFLX's Reed Hastings left the chairman role.
US Equity Strategy note on SPCX's index inclusion and associated passive inflows.
BUY, PT HK$28.00 (+46% to PT). Note on export-led upside coming into view.
European autos & auto parts note tracking May electric-vehicle registration trends.
Thomas Wigg's weekly media note covering ticketing regulation, the box-office recovery, the PSKY-WBD approval, the upcoming content slate and staff picks.
O dia foi dominado por notícias do ecossistema de semicondutores e infraestrutura de IA, com a conta @jukan05 concentrando boa parte do engajamento. Destaques incluem o anúncio da SemiAnalysis sobre seu novo laboratório de teardown (STEEL) em Oregon, com dezenas de milhões em capex, e uma série de relatos sobre a cadeia de suprimentos: a TSMC preparando produção em massa de CoPoS para o próximo ano, a expansão acelerada da capacidade de empacotamento avançado CoWoS, a adoção do padrão 800V HVDC pela plataforma Vera Rubin da Nvidia e o desenvolvimento de um chip de 4nm da Samsung Foundry para a Neuralink.
O tema da inteligência artificial permeou grande parte das conversas, tanto no plano estratégico quanto no técnico. Mustafa Suleyman e Ethan Mollick repercutiram as ideias de Satya Nadella sobre a mudança de plataforma e o valor crescente do julgamento humano à medida que a IA avança. Houve também forte discussão sobre o futuro dos agentes de IA na reestruturação das empresas, peculiaridades de treinamento de modelos e a repercussão em torno da indisponibilidade do modelo Fable 5, incluindo dúvidas sobre extensão de acesso a assinaturas e o uso de seus traços de raciocínio em modelos open-source.
No front da Apple e produtos de consumo, MacRumors e 9to5Mac trouxeram um fluxo constante de lançamentos de betas (iOS 26.6, iOS 27, macOS Tahoe, watchOS e visionOS), rumores sobre o iPhone 18 Pro (lente de abertura variável, novas cores e possíveis problemas de durabilidade) e a confirmação indireta de que não haverá um iPhone 18 neste ano. Temas regulatórios também ganharam espaço, como a proibição do Reino Unido ao uso de redes sociais por menores de 16 anos a partir de 2027 e tensões entre Meta, Apple e Google sobre obrigações de privacidade.
Post compartilhado sem comentário por Jukan, que mesmo assim alcançou o maior engajamento do dia na lista. 🔗 ver post
Maior engajamento do dia, vindo de uma das contas mais influentes em hardware e semicondutores.
A SemiAnalysis anunciou o laboratório de teardown STEEL em Oregon, com dezenas de milhões de capex para analisar os chips e tecnologias de processo mais avançados do mundo. 🔗 ver post
Marca um investimento relevante em capacidade independente de análise de semicondutores de ponta.
Brad Gerstner exalta a cultura de fundadores e a disposição ao risco como parte do 'DNA americano'. 🔗 ver post
Reflexão de um investidor influente sobre empreendedorismo que gerou grande ressonância.
Destaca um artigo de Andrew Curran argumentando que Mythos/Fable mudou tudo e que a janela de oportunidade de três anos teria se fechado. 🔗 ver post
Alimenta o debate sobre o impacto e o timing competitivo dos modelos de IA.
Ethan Mollick afirma que ainda não se conhecem as melhores formas de reconstruir empresas em torno de agentes de IA e que experimentação e falhas serão necessárias. 🔗 ver post
Visão influente sobre o estágio inicial e os desafios práticos dos agentes de IA nas empresas.
Jukan recomenda fortemente a leitura de um relatório que considera excelente. 🔗 ver post
Recomendação de uma fonte respeitada em semicondutores, sinalizando conteúdo de referência.
Questiona se, mesmo com um relançamento do Fable 5, o acesso por assinatura continuará limitado a 22 de junho ou se será estendido. 🔗 ver post
Reflete a preocupação da comunidade com a disponibilidade e o acesso ao modelo Fable 5.
Mustafa Suleyman elogia o post de Satya Nadella resumindo como a mudança histórica de plataforma beneficia amplamente a todos. 🔗 ver post
Endosso de uma liderança da Microsoft AI sobre a narrativa estratégica da empresa para a IA.
Segundo a ETNews da Coreia do Sul, a TSMC está montando a cadeia de suprimentos de materiais, componentes e equipamentos para o CoPoS, mirando produção em massa no próximo ano. 🔗 ver post
Notícia relevante sobre o roadmap de empacotamento avançado da TSMC para IA.
Mídia taiwanesa relata que a plataforma Vera Rubin adotará 800V HVDC, com remessas em pequeno volume começando no 3T. 🔗 ver post
Detalha decisões de arquitetura de energia da próxima geração de plataformas de IA da Nvidia.
Exclusivo: a Samsung Foundry estaria desenvolvendo um chip de próxima geração para a Neuralink em processo de 4nm, com produção em massa prevista para o fim do ano que vem. 🔗 ver post
Conecta a Samsung Foundry à fronteira de interfaces cérebro-máquina da Neuralink.
Repercute a ideia de Satya Nadella de que, quanto mais inteligente a IA, mais valioso se torna o julgamento humano para definir o que vale a pena fazer. 🔗 ver post
Sintetiza um argumento influente sobre o papel humano na era da IA avançada.
Guia de LLMs locais (junho de 2026) com recomendações de build econômico e modelos por faixa de VRAM, como Gemma 4-12B e Qwen3.6-27B. 🔗 ver post
Recurso prático e atualizado para quem quer rodar modelos de IA localmente.
O plano da SpaceX de implantar 1GW de satélites-data center orbitais de IA até o fim de 2027 atraiu forte interesse de fornecedores taiwaneses como Foxconn, Quanta e Wistron. 🔗 ver post
Aponta uma nova fronteira de infraestrutura de IA no espaço e seus impactos na cadeia de suprimentos.
Cita pesquisa do Google DeepMind mostrando que, ao usar um modelo de IA para treinar o próximo, o novo modelo pode herdar hábitos estranhos difíceis de filtrar. 🔗 ver post
Oferece uma explicação técnica para a semelhança entre modelos de uma mesma família.